Seminars About Long Term Thinking

02010 Seminar Listing

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Monday, August 2nd, 02010

Martin Rees

Life's Future in the Cosmos

President of the Royal Society, England's Astronomer Royal, Lord Martin Rees brings a lifetime of cosmological inquiry to a crucial question: What if human success on Earth determines life's success in the universe?

He thinks that civilization's chances of getting out of this century intact are about 50-50. He is hopeful that extraterrestrial life already exists, but there's no sign of it yet. But even if we are now alone, he notes that we may not even be the halfway stage of evolution. There is huge scope for post-human evolution, so that "it will not be humans who watch the sun's demise, 6 billion years from now. Any creatures that then exist will be as different from us as we are from bacteria or amoebae."

Appropriately, Rees's Long Now talk will be at the Chabot Space & Science Center in the hills above Oakland, in the planetarium.

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Tuesday, July 27th, 02010

Jesse Schell

Visions of the Gamepocalypse

Games perpetually revolutionize computer use toward denser interaction with the human mind. To do that, they perpetually revolutionize themselves. Understanding the next frontiers of the genre is one way to understand where society is going.

In this talk Jesse Schell explores the social, cognitive, and technological trends in computer game design and use.

Jesse Schell is the CEO of Schell Games, the author of the authoritative text, The Art of Game Design: a book of lenses, and a Professor of Entertainment Technology at Carnegie Mellon, specializing in Game Design. At Walt Disney, he was Creative Director of the Imagineering VR Studio.

 

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Monday, July 12th, 02010

Frank Gavin

Five Ways to Use History Well

Policy makers typically ignore or misuse history. They are attracted by simplistic theories and analogies and take little account of huge events outside their policy-making domain.

Scholarly historians can cure those blindnesses but are seldom invited to. Specifically, trained historians can help improve policy decisions by bringing the perspectives of vertical history (deep causes), horizontal history (complex linkages), chronological proportionality (many big deals aren't big for long), unintended consequences (irony abounds), and recognizing the limits of policy.

Francis Gavin is an historian at the University of Texas specializing in international policy.

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Wednesday, June 16th, 02010

Ed Moses

Clean Fusion Power This Decade

Finally achieving fusion energy may be closer than everyone thinks. For decades the dream has been to employ the reaction that powers stars to generate high-volume electricity without the drawbacks of fission reactors---no high-level waste, no weapons application, no risk of meltdown, no use of uranium, and (as with fission) no greenhouse gases.

Ed Moses is director of the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore Labs. Focusing massive amounts of laser light for a billionth of a second, the NIF is expected to demonstrate ignition of a fusion reaction (more energy out than in) for the first time in the coming year, followed by the prospect of a prototype machine for generating continuous clean energy by the end of this decade. That could change everything. The NIF itself is a spectacular work of "technological sublime."

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Monday, May 3rd, 02010

Nils Gilman

Deviant Globalization

Hidden and powerful and growing worldwide at twice the rate of the legal economy, "deviant globalization" is described by Nils Gilman as "human trafficking, drug dealing, gun running, cross-border waste disposal, organ trading, sex tourism, money laundering, transnational gangs, piracy (both intellectual and physical), and so on."

He adds: "The structure of the current global economy is not designed for equitable, plodding growth; it's designed to reward opportunistic, risk-seeking innovators. Were one to construct an investment portfolio of illicit businesses, it would no doubt outperform Wall Street."

In some parts of the world, with the decline of state sovereignty and growth of grassroots communication technology, outlaw organizations are taking over statelike duties.

Trained as an historian, Nils Gilman is a consultant at Global Business Network/Monitor for licit organizations, including the US intelligence community. He is co-author of the forthcoming book, Deviant Globalization.

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Thursday, April 1st, 02010

David Eagleman

Six Easy Steps to Avert the Collapse of Civilization

David Eagleman may be the best combination of scientist and fiction-writer alive. Sum, his collection of afterlife alternatives, made a stunning literary debut last year and now appears in 21 languages. Simultaneously he is a neuroscientist at Baylor College of Medicine, specializing in time perception.

In this talk he spells out how to save the world.

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Thursday, March 4th, 02010

Beth Noveck

Transparent Government

President Obama's first executive action was the Open Government Memorandum calling for more transparent, participatory, and collaborative government. It is likely that one of the longest lasting effects of the current administration will be how much it changed the culture of Washington by opening government data and pioneering innovations in policymaking.

As the United States Deputy Chief Technology Officer and leader of the President's Open Government Initiative in the White House, Beth Noveck is in the forefront of the Federal government's implementation of these changes. On leave as law professor at New York Law School and a visiting professor of communication at Stanford University, she lectures on intellectual property, innovation and technology law. She is also the Founder of the State of Play conferences.

Noveck just released her latest book Wiki Government: How Technology Can Make Government Better, Democracy Stronger, and Citizens More Powerful.

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Wednesday, February 24th, 02010

Alan Weisman

World Without Us, World With Us

Journalist Weisman traveled the world to investigate what happens when humans stop occupying an area. How long do our artifacts last? How does nature recover? What does that say about the human impact on the world? What would be the actual sequence of events if all of humanity suddenly disappeared?

The exercise provides inspiration and techniques for humans to occupy Earth more lightly and therefore more durably.

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Monday, February 1st, 02010

Brian EnoStewart BrandAlexander Rose

Long Finance: The Enduring Value Conference

Long Finance aims to “improve society’s understanding and use of finance over the long-term”, in contrast to the short-termism that defines today’s financial and economic views. The immediate objective of the initiative is to establish a Foundation that can ignite global debate on long-term finance, by examining how commerce should enable and encourage environmental and social sustainability.

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Wednesday, January 13th, 02010

Wade Davis

The Wayfinders: Why Ancient Wisdom Matters in the Modern World

Anthropologist Wade Davis is one of the world's great story tellers, with personal adventures to match. An Explorer-in-Residence at National Geographic, he specializes in hanging out with traditional peoples and exploring their religious practices.

He first came to public notice with his discovery of the reality of zombies in Haitian voodoo and the substance used to poison them---chronicled in his 1985 book, The Serpent and the Rainbow. He is the author of 13 books, including One River and Shadows in the Suns, and has hosted, written, and starred in numerous television specials, including "Earthguide," "Light at the Edge of the World," "Spirit of the Mask," and "Forests Forever." This talk is based on the prestigious Massey Lectures that Davis gave in Canada in 2009.

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Upcoming Seminars




  • Monday Nov. 15
  • Rachel Sussman
  • “The World's Oldest Living Organisms”

  • Thursday Dec. 16
  • Rick Prelinger
  • “Lost Landscapes of San Francisco, 5”



Previous Seminars

02010 Catalog




  • Ed Moses
  • “Clean Fusion Power This Decade”


  • David Eagleman
  • “Six Easy Steps to Avert the Collapse of Civilization”




  • Wade Davis
  • “The Wayfinders: Why Ancient Wisdom Matters in the Modern World”

02009 Catalog







  • Paul Romer
  • “A Theory of History, with an Application”



  • Daniel Everett
  • “Endangered languages, lost knowledge and the future”



02008 Catalog








  • Paul Ehrlich
  • “The Dominant Animal: Human Evolution and the Environment”



  • Craig Venter
  • “Joining 3.5 Billion Years of Microbial Invention”


  • Paul Saffo
  • “Embracing Uncertainty: the secret to effective forecasting”

02007 Catalog





  • Alex Wright
  • “Glut: Mastering Information Though the Ages”





  • Brian Fagan
  • “We Are Not the First to Suffer Through Climate Change”

  • Vernor Vinge
  • “What If the Singularity Does NOT Happen?”

  • Philip Tetlock
  • “Why Foxes Are Better Forecasters Than Hedgehogs”

02006 Catalog

  • Philip Rosedale
  • “'Second Life:' What Do We Learn If We Digitize EVERYTHING?”



  • Orville Schell
  • “China Thinks Long-term, But Can It Relearn to Act Long-term?”

  • John Rendon
  • “Long-term Policy to Make the War on Terror Short”



  • Jimmy Wales
  • “Vision: Wikipedia and the Future of Free Culture”

  • Kevin Kelly
  • “The Next 100 Years of Science: Long-term Trends in the Scientific Method.”



02005 Catalog

  • Sam Harris
  • “The View from the End of the World”

  • Clay Shirky
  • “Making Digital Durable: What Time Does to Categories”



  • Robert Fuller
  • “Patient Revolution: Human Rights Past and Future”






  • Roger Kennedy
  • “The Political History of North America from 25,000 BC to 12,000 AD”

  • James Carse
  • “Religious War In Light of the Infinite Game”

02004 Catalog






  • Jill Tarter
  • “The Search for Extra-terrestrial Intelligence: Necessarily a Long-term Strategy”



  • Daniel Janzen
  • “Third World Conservation: It's ALL Gardening”



  • George Dyson
  • “There's Plenty of Room at the Top: Long-term Thinking About Large-scale Computing”

02003 Catalog



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Fostering Long-term Responsibility
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